Melbourne Victory 2020/21 Season Preview
Melbourne Victory had a season to forget in 2019/20, with Marco Kurz’s team falling flat through a combination of signings that seemed to misfire, alongside tactics that were pragmatic, rigid and highly dependent on individual quality. The baton for the second rebuild in two seasons has fallen to Grant Brebner, who took charge of five games prior to being awarded the head coach role.
While it’s only been a few games still, we’re getting a clearer picture of how Brebner wants his side to set up as he’s had some consistency with tactics and themes that I explored in a previous article:
4-2-3-1 formation with versatility and positional rotations between the front four
Central combinations in buildup and attack
Attacking midfield player as a link player and first in the press
Fullbacks progressing the ball and providing width in attack
Organised 4-1-3-2 defensive structure designed to regain possession in the opposition half
‘Front foot’ centre backs who push up in defence
With wholesale changes to the playing and coaching group let’s have a look how it might all come together.
Attack
IN: Rudy Gestede, Callum McManaman, Ben Folami
OUT: Ola Toivonen, Kenny Athiu
From being almost understaffed last season, Brebner’s assembled an attacking complement with plenty of depth. The players are generally quite versatile, proficient in multiple positions in the front third and able to rotate positions at will, coming in centrally to combine with each other whenever they can.
The attacking complement assembled fits into the following sets of roles:
Play direct (Gestede, Folami) with…
...Support from wide (McManaman, Kruse, Kamsoba, fullbacks)
Combination plays centrally (everyone really)...
...and Direct running and pace in behind (Rojas, Folami, Lawrie-Lattanzio)
Playing Direct
Rudy Gestede’s metrics in the English Championship show his playing style - a target man acting as a focal point for his team’s attacks (in the air and generation of shots for himself), but very much less involved in creation of chances or progressing the ball. He is a great response to one of Victory’s previous challenges of not having a presence in the opposition’s penalty area (due to Toivonen dropping deep and/or Nabbout drifting from position to help progress the ball).
We haven’t seen Brebner play with an out-and-out striker who stays forward and doesn’t join the link up play, but it’s likely that introducing Gestede into the team means an alternate option for ball progression (long balls to his head for flick-ons that his teammates will look to latch onto) and a presence in the box.
Ben Folami is another exciting option, but he doesn’t have too much senior playing history to go off. He’s played both as a striker and on the wing, but in both positions likes to drift towards the left, driving inside with the ball to shoot/cross. He’s shown he’s got pace, a bit of trickery and an ability to dribble - look for him playing as an inside forward or as a poacher making runs off the shoulder of the defender.
We’ll see whether his dynamic running gives him an opportunity to play ahead of Gestede.
Support from wide
Callum McManaman is a versatile player who plays primarily on the wings, but has also played up front for Luton Town in the English Championship.
CM: I've adapted to more positions across the front three and I enjoy the roles in the final third #AskCallum https://t.co/tAEN6HGrqh
— Melbourne Victory (@gomvfc) October 28, 2020
His skillset is that of a traditional winger, quick feet, good close control and a turn of pace, but he doesn’t stay wide and just put crosses into the box. He likes to roam from his position on the flanks to come inside, often using his pace to find pockets of space centrally to pick up the ball unmarked.
He also contributes to the defensive side of play, chasing back to win the ball and using his pace to put defenders under pressure when they try to play out from the back.
At Luton Town, while he managed 1137 minutes across 26 appearances and last season, almost half of these were off the bench (11 vs 15 starting) and he only ever saw 90 minutes in two matches. Hopefully he’ll get a bit more game time at Victory.
Robbie Kruse put up some good attacking metrics last season, but unfortunately spent most of it injured. His return from injury acts almost like a new signing again, and with less of a reliance on him through increased depth hopefully he can stay injury free.
Kruse is best out wide, although his versatility and technique on the ball means that he can come inside to combine centrally or do a job up front.
Elvis Kamsoba is a polarising figure, showcasing flashes of talent but with a common criticism that he doesn’t produce a final product - his final tallies of 2 goals and 1 assist over the 2019/20 season certainly put him under scrutiny. While he’s got trickery and a turn of pace, he lacks composure, which generally means that he’s unable to get his head up before crossing, shooting or finding his teammates with combination play.
He’ll still be a handy bench/rotation player, but you get the feeling that this season might be his last chance to impress in Victory’s colours.
Direct Running
Marco Rojas is a player who likes to be on the receiving end of passes - his main strength is to run from deep, catching out the defence using his acceleration and receiving the ball in behind. Because of this, he’s less of a contributor to build-up play/creation, and instead contributes by being the target of penetrative or incisive passes or flick-ons. Accordingly, his metrics show a heavier focus on finishing than creation, with his shooting metrics more pronounced than his creation/progression.
Luis Lawrie-Lattanzio made his debut and showed some sharp moments after the restart, and has gotten some time in the pre-season friendly against Melbourne City and in the Champions League.
He gets into decent attacking positions in and around the box and was probably a bit frustrated to not score his first against Western Sydney Wanderers in 2019/20’s last game, with his mistimed shot instead falling to Nabbout for a tap-in.
He’s definitely got potential, but I’m not fully convinced he’s ready to start yet and I think some of the plaudits he’s received so far are a bit overhyped. His first touch and passing were still a bit loose in tight spaces, and he’s had difficulty with the physicality of defenders.
He’ll definitely play this season, probably off the bench or as a rotation option, but I think he’s still got a lot of development to do before he’s ready to lead the line regularly.
Midfield
IN: Jake Brimmer, Jacob Butterfield
OUT: Josh Hope, Migjen Basha, Jakob Poulsen
Midfield has also seen a bit of movement with two in and two out. The post-lockdown period last season saw the midfield play an industrious role, circulating the ball by playing simple passes and defensively either stepping up in the press or covering space in front of the defence.
The addition of Butterfield and Brimmer means they have more forward drive from midfield by being more proficient going forward, adding an ability to pass through the lines, or simply carrying the ball forward.
Jacob Butterfield has joined his former teammate Callum McManaman from Luton Town, but similar to McManaman he had a fairly patchy appearance record last season. He saw 1082 minutes of action last season spread across 26 appearances, with large periods of time not being in the squad or staying on the bench.
His profile is quite interesting as he can play both in a more reserved midfield position, but also join the attack based on his positioning in games. He looks like an old-school box-to-box midfielder, getting involved up and down the pitch and getting stuck into tackles when he tracks back to defend.
When playing deeper he doesn’t always look forward with his passes, preferring to keep things simple and retain possession. As the ball comes forward, he doesn’t have the traditional skillset of a number 10 to constantly sit in the hole and unlock defences, but he helps with link up play and progressing the ball forwards, often drifting wider to help progress the ball down the flanks. If he receives the ball in space around the box, he’s happy to take a long shot.
While he’s probably more at home in central midfield, he might make appearances as an attacking midfielder.
Jake Brimmer had a decent season with Perth Glory, providing an energetic presence to their midfield. Because much of the penetrative passing responsibilities fell to Neil Kilkenny, Brimmer’s role was often to offset his positioning by providing running off the ball or carrying it forwards himself if passing lanes were not available.
His defensive contributions from last season were not as strong - he was frequently ahead of the ball when Perth lost possession, but was protected by a defensive midfielder in Juande. In the finals series, Perth played in a deeper defensive block, which meant that Brimmer’s energy was spent more in defence, where he provided a decent defensive work rate, shuttling across the spaces in front of the defence and helping with overloads out wide.
Leigh Broxham is a utility player and will perform any role required from him, either covering ahead of the defence or providing a bit more energy further forwards.
He's the only real defensive midfield option that Victory have in their ranks, with Butterfield's game being more technical and on the ball, Brimmer more of an energetic runner, and while Barnett was energetic in defence last season, his defensive contributions were generally ahead of the defensive holding midfielder.
His metrics last season are very much skewed towards defence, though it’s worth remembering that he filled in at centre back for 11(!) games last season. With the introduction of two central midfield signings in Butterfield and Brimmer, it’s likely that we’ll see him as a rotation option in midfield, or filling in in defence.
Birkan Kirdar also had a promising period last season, mainly playing in the attacking midfield role as a link player, dropping deep to help progress the ball forwards and stepping forwards to press in when off the ball.
He finds himself in good positions centrally but hasn’t shown too much incision with his passing, often preferring to play simpler passes rather than playing the killer balls himself. He also has room to improve in the final third, particularly when he is under pressure.
Jay Barnett had some minutes of game time earlier in the 2019/20 season, but the restart period allowed him to get a good run of starts where he showed his ability. He's always positioning himself ready to receive the ball but passing is still quite possession focused though; it would be good to see him turn on the ball and play forward more. He's also got an engine and is up and down the pitch all game pressing energetically.
I think he’s got a lot of potential, and hope to see him play more minutes this season.
Defence
IN: Nick Ansell, Ryan Shotton (heavily rumoured)
OUT: James Donachie, Giancarlo Gallifuoco, Ben Carrigan
Defence is another area which has seen a large reshuffle, with three centre backs out and a few replacements in. In the meantime, we haven’t seen any fullbacks come in, so for injures/rotations, there will likely be a makeshift replacement, likely Broxham or another centreback.
Ryan Shotton has not been announced, but he is rumoured to be the big name signing in defence. He is currently a free agent, having played most recently at Middlesbrough in the Championship (albeit via a brief stint at non-league Leek Town)
He's a centre back, but his time has also seen him fill in at fullback, and even in other roles as a winger and striker (though it's been a while since!).
He nursed an ankle injury last season which kept him out of the Middlesbrough squad for four months in the middle of the season and picked up an injury towards the end of his time, but aside from injuries was an ever-present in the Championship over the past few seasons.
He boasts an absolutely huge throw-in, able to hit the penalty spot with his throws. If the transfer comes through, I very much look forward to seeing some chaos being created as he delivers throws to Gestede in the box.
Nick Ansell is a front-foot defender, meaning he’s comfortable coming out of defence to cut out space in between the lines for strikers dropping deep or attacking midfielders who move past the midfield line. We’ve seen Brebner instruct his centre backs to push up out of defence when the opposition plays in between the lines, so it looks like his skillset might suit.
The fullbacks Adama Traore and Storm Roux look set to pick up where they left off as first choice fullbacks, with no direct replacements drafted in. They’re an important part to how Victory play in possession, assisting with passing or carrying the ball forwards in buildup and then providing the width for the team when the attackers drift centrally.
With Gestede’s arrival in the squad, crosses from wide will likely become even more important. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more aggressive attacking positioning, in addition to crossing metrics going up significantly over the course of this season.
Victory also have a few more youth options in defence, who generally don’t have too much of a history in senior squads - let’s hope they manage to get some game time this season to show what they can do.
Aaron Anderson is another player who made his debut towards the end of last season, playing four games. He seems like a serviceable option at the back in defence and is comfortable in possession - aligned to how Brebner likes to build up from the back.
Dylan Ryan is a bit of an unknown quantity, having only played youth and reserve team football during his time over in the Netherlands but has appeared for the Olyroos. He's a left footed centre back who seems quite tidy in defence and assured in possession - he's comfortable bringing the ball out of defence or playing passes into midfield
So Nishikawa has shown himself to be a tenacious defender and energetic player, but is not particularly confident with playing the ball forwards. He’ll be in and around the squad, partly due to a lack of any other options and this will be a big season for his development.
Squad Summary
It’s been a very productive off-season for Grant Brebner, bringing in plenty of seemingly quality players to round out the squad nicely.
Personally, I think the squad is a bit front-heavy, with six players who are good enough to be challenging for starting roles in the front three, and a distinct lack of depth for fullbacks and defensive midfielders - both positions that Broxham might find himself featuring in.
I think there’s a few questions which Brebner will need to find the answer to - how to share game minutes across players and what player selections will give his team an appropriate balance between attacking threat, build-up play and defensive solidity.
This article was originally published on The Reserve Team.