How Do Sydney FC Replace Adam Le Fondre?
Sydney FC have had a quiet and stable offseason with no big transfer stories bar one - Adam Le Fondre departing to Mumbai City FC in the Indian Super League. It’s a big loss for Sydney so I’ve had a look at how Sydney might plug that gap.
Adam Le Fondre
With 21 goals and 1 assist, he by far has the most goal contributions in the team, scoring a total of 43% of all Sydney’s goals (39.5% when excluding penalties). His role in the team is less around build-up, with his focus usually staying central and acting as the finisher. It’s not to say that he takes a lot of shots, but when Sydney create opportunities, Le Fondre has the main responsibility of putting those chances away.
His stats have reflected this accordingly with metrics like shots per 90, touches in box and conversion rates not exceedingly high, but nonetheless showing himself to be a clinical finisher, performing above expectations based on the shooting chances created (outperforming his xG by just over 5 goals).
His stats also reflect how he doesn’t contribute too much else to the game, with fairly low linkup play, assists or defensive output.
As an ever-present in the Sydney squad (he started every A-League game this season), we haven’t really seen how the system works without him or if other players can step up into the role that he’s now vacated.
So how can Sydney replace his shooting metrics?
Kosta Barbarouses
Kosta Barbarouses is the first candidate for Le Fondre’s replacement as the most senior and experienced striker in the squad. He partnered Le Fondre as a starter in all but one A-League game this season, which means that he should have a decent understanding of his strike partner’s role.
His metrics show this accordingly - lighter in terms of shooting/finishing, but more involved in build-up play (linkup plays, xG assisted).
This season he got a bit of flak for not being as clinical with his finishing, but his data from this season seems like an outlier. While he underperformed his xG this season, he overperformed xG in both the 18/19 and 17/18 seasons when he started to play more forward as a striker, and he netted 15 goals and 10 goals respectively in his Victory seasons.
Against the Olyroos we saw him retain his role as the supporting striker for Trent Buhagiar (and later Patrick Wood), so his focus might be more as continuing this role as opposed to replacing Le Fondre.
Trent Buhagiar
At first glance, Buhagiar’s 0.49 xG per 90 looks like he might replace Le Fondre’s 0.56 xG per 90 easily - but as with all stats, it’s important to look at it in context.
While he made 20 appearances, 19 of these were off the bench, with his average substitution appearance being in the 79th minute of games.
Because of this, his appearances were mostly against defenders who might be more tired, or pushed up in attack to chase the game. Buhagiar’s role in these situations was usually as a counter-attacker, sprinting in behind or carrying the ball as a direct attacking option.
His stats back this up - out of all the xG he generated, 46% came from counter attacking moves - as compared with 14% from Le Fondre and 12% from Barbarouses. Furthermore, his xG from counterattacks was 0.23 per 90 minutes - the highest in the A-League this season.
This does mean that his xG from non-counterattacking situations is a much more modest 0.26 - significantly less than Le Fondre’s contributions.
Overall, while he’s proven himself a useful counter-attacker for Sydney last season, his appearances haven’t given him the opportunity to show other facets of his skillset. He still lacks some strength/balance to hold off defenders, while his combination play still leaves a lot to be desired.
That being said, while partnering with Kosta Barbarouses he scored two in a pre-season friendly against Macarthur FC (behind closed doors) and got a goal and an assist against the Olyroos. Perhaps this will be the season that he shows there's more to him than his pace.
Youth Options
Luke Ivanovic is another candidate who’s named as an option to play up front, but he’s a different style of player too.
Ivanovic made 14 appearances this season totalling 157 minutes, with most of his minutes playing on the wings. While he scored a great goal against Brisbane Roar last season, his playing style looks more like that of a technical dribbler, preferring to receive the ball to feet and carrying it into more dangerous positions. He’ll probably be used as an alternate option when trying to break down more stubborn defences.
Finally, Patrick Wood (18) and Jordi Swibel (21) both played for Sydney FC II in the NSW NPL and ended up scoring a goal per game with Wood finishing as top scorer with 11 goals in 11 appearances and Swibel scoring 4 in 4. They’ve proven they can score, but we’re still yet to see how they fare at an A-League level. We’ll likely see both of them get a few minutes in rotation.
What Next?
Of course, there’s still the option of transferring in a replacement, and Steve Corica has mentioned that while the search is ongoing, it will not be a marquee signing. With the local market not looking particularly deep in terms of pure striking options, they might be looking at the foreign free agent market.
The Asian Champions League will provide an excellent chance for Sydney’s strikers to audition for and hopefully secure the role, or provide extra impetus for Steve Corica to make a move in the transfer market for the start of the A-League season.
This article was originally published on The Reserve Team.